A volcano "traffic light" using earthquake data! Visualizing the imminence of an eruption in real time

Explanation

An international research team including Tohoku University and Kyoto University developed a new evaluation method that indicates the imminence of a volcanic eruption using earthquake data, expressed in three stages—blue, yellow, and red—like a "traffic light." The mechanism treats a drop in the "b-value," a statistical measure representing how likely earthquakes of each magnitude are to occur, as a sign that pressure is building up inside the volcano, triggering a red signal. When tested on volcanoes with different characteristics in Japan, Iceland, and the island of Hawaii, an eruption occurred within 10 days of a red signal with a probability of about 39%, achieving accuracy comparable to satellite-based observation. A major advantage is that volcanoes can be monitored using existing data alone, without the need to add new observation equipment.