Japanese Population Fell by 866,000, Foreign Population Rose by 257,000: Ministry of Internal Affairs Population Estimate

Explanation

In the population estimate published by the Statistics Bureau of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications on August 20, 2026, Japan's total population was 122.68 million (a preliminary figure as of August 1, 2026). This was 590,000 fewer than the same month the previous year, a decrease rate of 0.48%.

On the same day, a finalized figure based on the census was also released. The total population as of March 1, 2026, was 122,811,000, down 610,000 (0.49%) from the same month the previous year. The finalized figure includes a breakdown as well, allowing us to see the "composition" of the population.

What stands out in the breakdown is that the Japanese and foreign populations are moving in opposite directions. The Japanese population was 118,989,000, down 866,000 (0.72%) from the same month the previous year. Meanwhile, the foreign population was 3,821,000, up 257,000 (7.20%). The reason the total population decline is limited to 610,000 is that the increase in the foreign population offsets some of the decrease in the Japanese population. Foreign residents now account for about 3.1% of the total population.

Broken down by age, the pace of decline is not uniform across generations.

・Under 15: 13,319,000 (down 360,000, -2.63%)
・15–64: 73,290,000 (down 265,000, -0.36%)
・65 and over: 36,202,000 (up 15,000, +0.04%)
・Of which, 75 and over: 21,488,000 (up 479,000, +2.28%)

The largest rate of decline is in the under-15 group, the only one of the three categories to exceed 2%. In terms of raw numbers, the 15–64 group is closer, with declines of 360,000 and 265,000, but because the base populations differ by more than fivefold, the rates show a clear difference.

While the 65-and-over group is roughly flat (+0.04%), the 75-and-over group within it increased by 479,000. This is not a sudden expansion of the 65-and-over population as a whole, but rather a shift toward older ages within that group.

Population estimates start from the census conducted once every five years, and each month's births, deaths, and immigration/emigration records are added and subtracted from that base. This is why both preliminary and finalized figures are published simultaneously. The preliminary figure is for the most recent month, while the finalized figure, for a month five months earlier, is recalculated using more reliable data. When citing these numbers, it is important to note whether the figure is preliminary or finalized, and for what point in time, otherwise it may appear to conflict with other figures.

Source: Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, "Population Estimates (Finalized figures for March 2026, preliminary figures for August 2026)," published August 20, 2026
https://www.stat.go.jp/data/jinsui/new.html