Private High School Tuition Down 73.2%, Green Tea Up 29.2%: July Consumer Price Index

Explanation

In the July consumer price index published by the Statistics Bureau of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications on August 21, 2026, the overall index stood at 102.0 (with 2025 as the base of 100), up 1.9% from the same month the previous year.

The consumer price index is published as three parallel indices: the "overall index," which includes volatile items like vegetables and fish, at 102.0 (up 1.9% year-on-year); the index "excluding fresh food," at 102.1 (up 1.8%); and the index "excluding fresh food and energy," which also excludes fuel and electricity costs, at 102.1 (up 1.9%). All three are in the high-1% range.

Lining up the overall growth rate month by month in 2026: 1.5% in January, 1.3% in February, 1.5% in March, 1.4% in April, 1.5% in May, 1.6% in June, and 1.9% in July. Early in the year, it moved within a narrow range of 1.3–1.5%, but it rose by 0.3 points from June to July.

What is driving this increase can be seen from the items cited by the Statistics Bureau. In food, confectionery rose 6.1% (potato chips up 13.3%), prepared foods rose 3.5% (fried chicken up 8.3%), fresh fish and shellfish rose 12.4% (tuna up 20.4%), fresh vegetables rose 6.6% (tomatoes up 13.5%), beverages rose 5.5% (green tea up 29.2%), and eating out rose 1.7% (hamburgers up 13.2%). In transportation and communication, voluntary automobile insurance premiums rose 5.9%, and mobile phone service charges rose 4.6%.

Conversely, some items are falling. Education tuition and related fees fell 6.4%, with private high school tuition within that category falling 73.2%.

The phrase "with 2025 as the base of 100" means the 2025 average has been reset to the baseline value of 100. A value of 102.0 indicates a level 2.0% higher than the 2025 average. This statistic is named the "2025 base," and the base year is periodically reset. The index level (102.0) and the year-on-year growth (1.9%) are different figures and should not be confused. The month-on-month comparison (seasonally adjusted) is also published; in July, the overall index rose 0.4% and the index excluding fresh food rose 0.3% from the previous month.

One thing worth noting here is the figure called "contribution." Contribution indicates how many points a given item pushed the overall index's growth (1.9%) up or down. Although green tea rose as much as 29.2%, its contribution was only 0.03. Because it is not purchased in large quantities, its overall impact is small. Private high school tuition, on the other hand, had a contribution of minus 0.15, making it the single largest downward drag on the overall index. Lining up these two shows that the magnitude of a price change and its overall impact are two different things.

Source: Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, "2025 Base Consumer Price Index, Nationwide, July 2026," published August 21, 2026
https://www.stat.go.jp/data/cpi/sokuhou/tsuki/index-z.html