Crude Oil Import Volume Up 5.5%, Import Value Up 87.8%: July Trade Statistics

Explanation

In the preliminary July trade statistics released by the Ministry of Finance on August 20, 2026, exports totaled 11.5118 trillion yen and imports totaled 12.1463 trillion yen. The balance was a deficit of 634.5 billion yen. In July of the previous year, the deficit was 156.3 billion yen, meaning the deficit more than quadrupled.

In terms of growth rates, exports rose 23.2% and imports rose 27.8% year-on-year. Both increased by more than 20%. This was not a case of exports falling into deficit; rather, both increased, with import growth outpacing export growth.

What makes this statistic especially worth reading closely is that "volume" and "value" are listed separately.

Crude oil and raw petroleum, the largest import category, had a volume of 12,106 thousand kiloliters, up 5.5% year-on-year. However, the value was 1.4089 trillion yen, up 87.8%. Even though the volume barely changed, the amount paid increased by nearly 90%. The difference reflects a rise in the price per kiloliter. Crude oil alone accounted for 6.9 points of the 27.8% overall growth in imports.

The same kind of gap appears on the export side. Automobile exports numbered 524,159 units, roughly flat with a 0.7% increase in volume. In contrast, the value was 1.7872 trillion yen, up 19.5%. Even with the same number of units sold, if the price per unit rises, the value increases.

Semiconductor-related items also moved significantly. On the import side, semiconductor and other electronic components rose 79.7%; within that, integrated circuits (ICs) saw volume rise 12.8% but value rise 92.6%. On the export side, semiconductor manufacturing equipment rose 40.9%.

By trading partner, exports to the United States were 2.0909 trillion yen (up 22.0%) and imports were 1.8105 trillion yen (up 58.0%). Exports to China were 2.0090 trillion yen (up 25.8%) and imports were 2.7844 trillion yen (up 26.2%), resulting in a deficit of 775.4 billion yen.

When working with these figures, it is also worth keeping in mind the conditions noted by the Ministry of Finance. Export values are recorded as FOB prices, which include costs up to loading onto a ship or aircraft, while import values are recorded as CIF prices, which add freight and insurance on top of that. The trade balance is therefore not a difference measured on the same yardstick. Also, the recording date is defined as the departure date of the ship or aircraft for exports, and the date of import permission for imports.

Reading trade statistics only in terms of "exports increased/decreased" obscures whether it was volume or price that moved. Getting into the habit of looking at volume and value side by side allows one more level of insight to be read from the same table.

Source: Ministry of Finance, "July 2026 Trade Statistics (Preliminary)," released August 20, 2026
https://www.customs.go.jp/toukei/shinbun/trade-st/2026/2026074.pdf